1.1     Careers Education and Guidance (CEG) is increasingly recognised as important not only to individuals but also to the economy; it now has greater prominence in the public policy agenda.

1.2     With increased attention to, and expenditure on CEG, there is a concern to evaluate its effectiveness. Different approaches are possible but each has particular strengths and weaknesses. Outcome measures are one approach and, within this, evaluation of the economic outcomes of guidance has attracted much attention.

1.3     This study aims to evaluate the economic effect of CEG on individuals, using the Youth Cohort Study (YCS) to consider the CEG they received in Year 11 (aged 15/16) and their outcomes at age 18/19.

1.4     The research raises major conceptual and methodological issues. The YCS offers considerable potential for such research since it is a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of young people. But it also has several disadvantages, in particular the restricted extent and nature of its questions on CEG. An important aspect of the research, therefore, has been to assess the quality of the CEG data as well as exploring possible outcome measures.

1.5     The YCS enables personal and social factors to be taken into account and therefore to distinguish the separate influence of CEG on outcomes from other factors. It must be remembered that while it is possible to describe associations between CEG and certain outcomes, this does not prove cause and effect.

1.6     This study is concerned with young people who were in Year 11 in 1990/91. Since then there have been a range of initiatives to improve CEG, and the results described here should not be taken as an evaluation of current CEG.

2.     Data and Methodology

2.1     The study uses the sixth YCS, the latest survey for which data on respondents at age 18/19 is available. The young people concerned were 16 during 1990/91. They were sent three annual postal questionnaires: Sweep 1 in 1992 at the age of 16/17; Sweep 2 in 1993 at 17/18; and Sweep 3 in 1994 at 18/19.

2.2     Destinations at 16 proved critical to subsequent career outcomes and so we conducted all further analyses separately for those who stayed on in education at 16 and those who did not.

2.3     Two-thirds of respondents were still in full-time education (school or college) at age 16/17. Virtually all of those not in full-time education were in the labour market. Well over half of those who remained in full-time education at 16/17 were still in this status at 18/19. Only a very small proportion of respondents in the labour market at 16/17 had returned to full-time education by 18/19.

2.5     Data on CEG in the YCS is limited to Year 11 when respondents were 15/16. After initial analyses of all of the questions on CEG, we focused on four inputs: careers guidance classes; work experience; careers officer interview; and having a job/YT interview arranged by the careers office. We included both young people's participation in and also their opinion of each CEG input.

2.6     Within overall high levels of participation in CEG, respondents' experience varied. High attainers, in particular, were less likely to have had any of the CEG inputs than middle attainers. Those with the lowest levels of attainment also reported less CEG than the middle attainers. Apart from attainment, other factors including school type, social class and parental education also influenced the likelihood of young people receiving CEG.

2.7     Our analysis of the impact of CEG focuses on 11 outcomes. These concerned participation in education; gaining qualifications; quality of labour market experience; and attitude to their experience and to their prospects. A number of other outcomes were considered but not included in the final analysis.

2.8     The effects of CEG were measured using a multilevel logit regression. This enabled us to take into account young people's personal and family characteristics, their atittudes to school, school type and local unemployment rate and therefore isolate the effect of CEG on outcomes.

3.     The Outcomes of CEG for Young People who Remained in Full-Time Education at 16/17

3.1     Year 11 CEG had little influence on the probability of respondents who were in full-time education at 16/17 continuing in full-time education until 18/19. Personal and social characteristics were the major determinants.

3.2     Among those who stayed on in full-time education, CEG had a minimal influence on early leaving by age 17/18. A number of personal and social factors and local unemployment rate had a greater influence.

3.3     Attainment by 18/19 was more affected by young people's attainment in Year 11 than by their experience of CEG. Respondents who had had an interview with a careers officer were less likely to achieve a qualification equivalent to an NVQ Level 2 or above than those who did not.

3.4     For those in full-time education at 18/19, CEG made a difference to the type of course studied. Careers guidance classes and careers officer interviews were both associated with increased participation in vocational courses. Respondents who had work experience were less likely to study a vocational course.

3.5     Among those who had been in full-time education at 16/17 and were in a job or scheme at 18/19, CEG improved their chances of being in the type of job or training they wanted. Young people who had a positive opinion of work experience, or a positive opinion of careers guidance classes were most likely to be satisfied with their job or scheme. Having had a job or YT interview arranged by the careers office was also associated with increased likelihood of respondents believing they were in the 'right' job or training scheme.

    CEG made no difference to young people's chances of being unemployed at 18/19.

3.6     CEG increased the chances of 18/19 year old respondents who had spent the past year as full-time students thinking that how they had spent their time had improved their chances of doing what they wanted by 21. If respondents had had either work experience or careers guidance classes and had found them useful, they were more likely to be positive about the value of their previous year's activity.

4.     The Outcomes of CEG for Young People who Entered the Labour Market at 16/17

4.1     Careers guidance classes increased the probability of respondents studying a vocational course at 18/19. This was irrespective of their opinion of the classes.

4.2     CEG did not influence respondents' chances of studying a course equivalent to an NVQ Level 2 or higher by 18/19. But those who had careers guidance classes were more likely to achieve a Level 2+ qualification than those who did not have classes.

4.3     For those who had gone into the labour market at 16/17 and were in a job or scheme at 18/19, CEG improved their chances of receiving 'quality' training. Young people who had work experience or an interview with a careers officer (irrespective of their opinion) were more likely to receive off-the-job training. Respondents who had careers guidance classes had more chances of having training leading to a qualification.

4.4     Respondents were slightly more likely to be satisfied with the type of job or scheme they were doing at 18/19 if they had been on work experience and found it useful. A poor opinion of work experience was associated with a more negative effect than not doing work experience at all.

4.5     CEG did not influence the chances of young people who had entered the labour market at 16 being unemployed at 18/19. Personal and social factors and the local unemployment rate all had an influence.

4.6     The attitude of 18/19 who had been in a job or scheme in the past year, to their prospects at 21 was not affected by the CEG they had received in Year 11.

5.     Conclusions

5.1     Personal and social characteristics were the major influences on young people's outcomes after 16; beside these factors CEG can only have a limited effect. Moreover, this study has been restricted to CEG received in Year 11 only. It relates to the situation of CEG in 1990/91, before some major initiatives in CEG. The YCS itself is not designed specifically to evaluate CEG.

5.2     Even within these limitations, CEG had a positive influence on a number of outcomes for some young people, increasing their chances of: studying a vocational course; achieving a qualification equivalent to an NVQ Level 2 or higher; being in a job or scheme in which they received quality training; being satisfied with their job or scheme; and being satisfied that how they had spent their previous year was likely to have improved their prospects at 21.

5.3     For some outcomes, respondents' opinion of the CEG input was important but for other outcomes, it was the fact of participation in CEG that made a difference, irrespective of respondents' opinion of it.

5.4     This study suggests that the YCS offers some potential to evaluate the longer-term outcomes of CEG but that to achieve a better evaluation of CEG outcomes it would need to: collect more information about the extent, nature and quality of CEG and to do so pre- and post-Year 11.

5.5     It would also be valuable for the YCS to include a measure to estimate individuals' prior orientation to the different post-16 options. A respondent's experience of CEG in Year 11 may be a consequence of their anticipated outcomes (especially whether to remain in full-time education or not) rather than influencing or causing them. A measure of prior orientation would help to distinguish cause and effect.

5.6     There are some difficulties with YCS data on young people's progression, courses and qualifications which makes the construction of some outcome variables of CEG problematic. Nevertheless, the YCS has the advantage of providing nationally representative information about young people on a longitudinal basis.

5.7     But we would note that young people's reported experience of CEG can only be one among other methods of evaluating the value of CEG.

The Department for Education and Employment undertakes research to help achieve its aim of supporting economic growth by promoting a competitive, efficient and flexible labour market.
Research Briefs summarise key findings from reports that are published in the Department's Research Series.

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Using the YCS to Analyse the Outcomes of Careers Education & Guidance
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