The Panel of Independent Forecasters

Table 3A.1 Summary of short-term forecasts

		Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
		Barker	Congdon	Davies	Minford	Rosewell	Weale	Average
GDP	1996	2.3	2.5	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
	1997	3.3	4.2	3.3	3.1	3.3	3.4	3.4
Claimant unemployment (millions)	1996 Q4	2.02	2.05	2.02	2.03	1.99	2.00	2.02
	1997 Q4	1.93	1.70	1.72	1.58	1.88	1.80	1.77
RPI	1996 Q4	2.7	2.7	2.7	1.8	2.5	2.3	2.5
	1997 Q4	2.7	3.7	3.0	2.2	3.0	2.8	2.9
RPI ex MIPs	1996 Q4	3.1	3.3	3.3	2.5	3.0	2.9	3.0
	1997 Q4	2.4	3.3	2.4	2.2	2.4	2.7	2.6
Whole economy underlying average earnings	1996	3.9	3.8	3.9	3.7	3.6	3.1	3.7
	1997	4.6	4.7	4.5	3.8	4.1	4.6	4.4
Short-term interest rate (per cent)	1996 Q4	6.0	6.0	6.5	5.5	5.8	5.8	5.9
	1997 Q4	6.0	7.8	6.8	6.1	7.1	5.8	6.6
Current account (£ billion)	1996	-5.5	-4.0	-1.1	-1.5	1.7	-1.3	-2.0
	1997	-10.3	-9.5	-7.4	0.0	-2.6	-3.3	-5.5
PSBR (£ billion)	1996-97	27.4	26.0	24.1	27.7	25.2	26.2	26.1
	1997-98	25.4	18.0	20.0	21.9	24.1	19.5	21.5

Table 3A.2 Forecasts of GDP and its components

		Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
		Barker	Congdon	Davies	Minford	Rosewell	Weale	Average
Consumers' expenditure(1)	1996	3.2	3.1	3.0	2.2	3.0	2.9	3.0
	1997	4.0	4.3	4.0	2.7	4.1	4.0	4.1
General government consumption(2)	1996	0.5	0.9	0.9	-1.2	0.8	0.7	0.8
	1997	0.3	1.3	1.3	-0.9	0.8	0.7	0.9
Gross fixed investment(3)	1996	2.8	3.7	2.6	5.9	3.4	4.4	3.4
	1997	5.2	7.2	4.7	6.8	4.8	4.7	5.3
Stockbuilding (£ billion)	1996	2.2	2.0	0.4	-	1.5	3.0	1.8
	1997	2.7	5.0	2.1	-	1.9	2.9	2.9
Domestic demand	1996	2.4	2.6	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.4
	1997	3.5	4.6	3.9	2.9	3.6	3.4	3.7
Exports of goods and services	1996	6.5	6.6	5.9	-	6.2	7.1	6.5
	1997	5.0	6.5	3.7	-	5.0	7.2	5.5
Imports of goods and services	1996	7.0	7.0	6.4	-	6.1	8.0	6.9
	1997	6.3	8.0	5.3	-	5.3	6.5	6.3
Net trade(4)	1996	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.1
	1997	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2
GDP	1996	2.2	2.5	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
	1997	3.1	4.2	3.3	3.1	3.3	3.4	3.4

(1) Minford forecasts non-durable consumption.
(2) Minford forecasts general government consumption and investment.
(3) Minford forecasts durable consumption, private investment and stockbuilding.
(4) Contribution to GDP growth, per cent.

Table 3A.3 Summary of medium-term projections

		Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
		Barker	Congdon	Davies	Minford	Rosewell	Weale	Average
GDP	1996	2.2	2.5	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
	1997	3.1	4.2	3.3	3.1	3.3	3.4	3.4
	1998	2.6	3.7	2.5	3.4	2.1	3.5	3.0
	1999	2.5	2.9	2.7	3.3	1.8	2.6	2.6
Claimant unemployment (millions)	1996	2.02	2.05	2.12	2.13	2.10	2.10	2.09
	1997	1.93	1.70	1.82	1.76	1.91	1.90	1.84
	1998	1.90	1.50	1.70	1.33	1.86	1.60	1.65
	1999	1.78	1.40	1.59	1.03	1.88	1.50	1.53
RPI	1996	2.7	2.5	2.5	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.5
	1997	2.7	3.4	2.9	1.6	2.6	2.6	2.6
	1998	3.6	4.2	-	2.5	3.8	3.2	3.5
	1999	3.1	5.2	-	2.2	3.5	3.7	3.5
RPI ex MIPs	1996	3.1	2.9	3.0	2.7	2.9	2.9	2.9
	1997	2.4	3.2	2.7	2.0	2.4	2.7	2.6
	1998	2.9	3.8	3.0	2.2	3.1	3.0	3.0
	1999	2.6	4.8	3.0	2.2	3.5	3.5	3.3
Short-term interest rate (per cent)	1996	6.0	6.4	6.5	5.8	5.9	5.9	6.1
	1997	6.0	7.5	6.8	5.8	6.4	5.8	6.4
	1998	7.0	8.2	7.0	6.0	7.6	5.9	7.0
	1999	7.0	8.5	6.8	6.0	7.4	6.0	7.0
Current account (£ billion)	1996	-5.5	-4.6	-1.0	-1.5	1.7	-1.3	-2.0
	1997	-10.3	-9.5	-7.4	0.0	-2.6	-3.3	-5.5
	1998	-6.3	-12.5	-8.6	-0.8	-1.5	-1.3	-5.2
	1999	-4.2	-13.5	-12.9	-1.0	0.5	4.6	-4.4
PSBR (£ billion)	1996-97	27.4	26.0	24.1	27.7	25.2	26.2	26.1
	1997-98	25.4	18.0	20.0	21.9	24.1	19.5	21.5
	1998-99	18.8	10.0	14.7	13.1	17.4	7.4	13.6
	1999-2000	13.6	4.0	9.9	3.3	16.7	0.7	8.0

[Prepared November 1996]