Annex A to Chapter 4

Further analyses of the public finances


4A.1 This annex contains a number of further analyses of the forecast of public finances in 1996-97 and 1997-98. There are also two tables which set out a historical series for the PSBR and its main components, including general government expenditure and general government receipts.

4A.2 The following analyses are included:

Table 4A.1 General government receipts(1)

 £ billion
 1995-961996-971997-98
 

Outturn
Last
Budget
Forecast
Latest
Forecast

Forecast
Inland Revenue
    Income tax
68.070.268.171.8
    Corporation tax(2)
23.626.626.127.2
    Petroleum revenue tax
1.01.01.71.6
    Capital gains tax
0.81.00.91.1
    Inheritance tax
1.51.51.61.6
    Stamp duties
2.02.42.42.7
Total Inland Revenue96.9102.6100.8106.0
Customs and Excise
    Value added tax
43.147.947.550.7
    Fuel duties
15.417.417.419.6
    Tobacco duties
7.37.77.88.4
    Spirits duties
1.71.71.71.8
    Wine duties
1.21.21.21.3
    Beer and cider duties
2.82.82.83.0
    Betting and gaming duties
1.61.71.51.6
    Air passenger duty
0.30.30.40.8
    Insurance premium tax
0.60.70.61.2
    Landfill tax
 0.10.10.4
    Customs duties and levies
2.52.62.22.4
Total Customs and Excise76.584.183.391.2
Vehicle excise duties4.04.34.34.5
Oil royalties0.60.50.70.6
Business rates(3)13.614.714.214.6
Social security contributions44.546.946.749.1
Council Tax9.69.99.910.6
Other taxes and royalties6.25.75.85.5
Total taxes and social security contributions251.8268.7265.6282.1
Interest and dividends5.64.85.05.1
Gross trading surpluses and rent5.05.35.14.9
Other receipts(4)6.86.05.27.2
General government receipts269.2284.8280.9299.4
North Sea revenues(5)2.43.03.54.1
(1) On a cash basis. See Annex B.
(2) Includes advance corporation tax (net of repayments):
(also includes North Sea corporation tax after ACT
set off, and corporation tax on gains).
9.99.411.711.8
(3) Includes district council rates in Northern Ireland.
(4) Includes payments into the National Lottery Distribution Fund and accruals adjustments for index-linked gilts.
(5) North Sea corporation tax (before ACT set-off), petroleum revenue tax and royalties.

Borrowing by sector

4A.3 Central government borrowing on its own account (ie excluding borrowing for on lending to local authorities and public corporations) more than accounted for the total PSBR in 1995-96 and is expected to do so again in 1996-97. Central government borrowing on its own account in the first seven months of 1996-97 was £6.5 billion lower than in the same period of 1995-96. By contrast, the forecast for 1996-97 as a whole implies borrowing in November to March which is only £0.5billion lower than in the same period last year.

4A.4 Privatisation proceeds account for part of this difference. Proceeds in April-October totalled £3.9 billion and very little in the way of privatisation proceeds are expected in the rest of 1996-97. This contrasts with 1995-96 when all the £2.4 billion proceeds for the year were received in the November to March period. Tax receipts in January - the usual peak month for receipts - are likely to be relatively weak as compared with the previous high months of July and October. Corporation tax receipts from industrial and commercial companies, who largely pay tax in January, are not expected to show as large a rise as did tax receipts from financial companies, who pay in October. And Schedule D income tax payments in January will be at lower tax rates (the 1996-97 rates) than the payments made last July.

Table 4A.2 Public sector borrowing requirement by sector
 £ billion
 1995-961996-97
 OutturnForecast
 Apr-OctNov-MarTotalApr-OctNov-MarTotal
CGBR (O)(1)19.216.435.612.715.928.6
LABR(2)0.6-1.7-1.10.3-0.30.0
PCBR(3)-1.0-1.8-2.8-1.6-0.6-2.2
PSBR18.812.931.711.415.026.4
CGBR(4)19.715.835.512.515.427.9

(1) Central government borrowing requirement on own account.

(2) Local authority borrowing requirement.

(3) Public corporations borrowing requirement.

(4) Central government borrowing requirement, including on-lending to local authorities and public corporations.

4A.5 Local authorities made a net repayment of £1.1 billion in 1995-96; a zero borrowing requirement is forecast for 1996-97. Public corporations made a net repayment of £2.8 billion in 1995-96; the forecast is for a net repayment of £2.2billion in 1996-97.

Central government transactions on a cash basis

4A.6 The monthly outturns for central government borrowing are measured from the cash flows into and out of central governments funds and accounts, after consolidation. Table 4A.3 sets out the 1995-96 outturn and 1996-97 and 1997-98 forecasts for central government borrowing in terms of this cash flow presentation.

Table 4A.3 Central government transactions on a cash receipts and outlays basis
 £ billion
 1995-961996-971997-98
  OutturnLast
Budget
Forecast
Latest
Forecast
Forecast
Receipts
Inland Revenue(1)97.1102.6100.8106.0
Customs and Excise(1)76.784.483.591.5
Social security contributions (GB)42.945.345.247.5
Interest and dividends8.77.88.18.5
Other19.419.821.020.7
Total receipts244.7259.9258.6274.3
Outlays
Interest payments23.426.626.827.7
Privatisation proceeds-2.4-4.0-4.5-2.0
Net department outlays259.3262.5264.9268.0(2)
Total outlays280.4285.1287.2293.8(2)
Net own account borrowing(3)35.625.328.619.5(2)
Net lending to local authorities and public corporations-0.2-1.1-0.70.4
Net borrowing35.524.127.920.0(2)

(1) Payments to the Consolidated Fund.

(2) Assumes Reserve allocated to central government sector.

(3) Excludes net lending to local authorities and public corporations.

Public finances by economic category

4A.7 Table 4A.6 shows a full analysis of receipts and expenditure by economic category with a breakdown between central government, local authorities and public corporations. Annex B explains the conventions used, which follow in most respects those in the UK national income and expenditure accounts.

4A.8 The table makes the assumption that the Reserve for 1997-98 is spent entirely on transactions that fall above the financial deficit line, although in practice allocations from the Reserve can also affect financial transactions. The Reserve for 1997-98 has been further apportioned between current and capital expenditure, on the basis of the experience of past outturns. It has also been assumed that all of the Reserve will be spent by central government; in practice allocations from the Reserve can be made to local authorities and public corporations spending as well.

4A.9 Tables 4A.4 and 4A.5 summarise the information on local authorities and public corporations transactions in Table 4A.6 and also provide outturn figures for 1995-96.

Table 4A.4 Local authority transactions
 £ billion
 OutturnForecast
 1995-961996-971997-98
Receipts
Council Tax(1)9.59.910.8
Current grants from central government57.358.158.1
Other receipts(2)7.77.87.8
Capital grants from central government4.73.23.2
Total receipts79.179.179.8
Expenditure
Current expenditure on goods and services53.054.255.0
Current grants and subsidies13.713.913.8
Interest4.24.14.4
Capital expenditure before depreciation7.57.36.5
Total expenditure78.579.479.6(3)
Financial deficit-0.70.4-0.2
Net financial transactions-0.5-0.3-0.1
Net borrowing-1.10.0-0.3

(1) Net of rebates and council tax benefit. Includes district council rates in Northern Ireland, shown in "Taxes on expenditure" in Table 4A.6 (line 2).

(2) Includes interest receipts, rent and gross trading surplus.

(3) Assumes no allocation from the Reserve.

Table 4A.5 Public corporations transactions
 £ billion
 OutturnForecast
 1995-961996-971997-98
Receipts
Gross trading surplus (including subsidies)4.84.94.9
Other current grants1.31.01.1
Capital grants from general government3.53.11.8
Total receipts9.59.17.8
Expenditure
Interest, dividends and taxes on income3.02.52.7
Capital expenditure before depreciation5.45.75.3
Total expenditure8.48.18.0(1)
Financial deficit-1.1-1.00.2
Net financial transactions-1.8-1.3-0.2
Net borrowing-2.8-2.20.0

(1) Assumes no allocation from the Reserve.

Table 4A.6 Public sector transactions by sub-sector and economic category
 £ billion
 1996-97
 Central government 
 Line(1)Central
government
Local
Authorities

Total
Public
corporations
Public
sector
Current receipts(2)
Taxes on income and royalties 196.90.096.9-0.296.7
Taxes on expenditure 2110.00.2110.20.0110.2
Taxes on capital 33.30.03.30.03.3
Social Security contributions 446.80.046.80.046.8
Council tax 50.09.89.80.09.8
Gross trading surplus 6-0.10.80.74.95.7
Rent and miscellaneous current transfers 72.74.16.80.47.2
Interest and dividends from private sector and abroad 82.30.52.90.23.0
Interest and dividends within public sector 95.8-3.72.1-2.10.0
Imputed charge for non-trading capital consumption101.42.13.50.03.5
Total current receipts11269.213.8283.03.2286.2
Current expenditure(2)
Current expenditure on goods and services12100.654.2154.80.0154.8
Depreciation132.44.97.33.911.1
Subsidies148.10.78.80.08.8
Current grants to personal sector1587.513.2100.70.0100.7
Current grants abroad164.90.04.90.04.9
Current grants within public sector1758.1-58.10.00.00.0
Debt interest1826.60.4(3)27.0-0.326.8
Apportionment of Reserve19 
Total current expenditure20288.215.3303.53.6307.1
Current deficit2119.01.520.50.420.9
Capital transfers220.00.30.3-0.10.2
Capital expenditure(2)
Gross domestic fixed capital expenditure233.96.210.15.215.3
Less Depreciation24-2.4-4.9-7.3-3.9-11.1
Increase in stocks250.00.00.00.00.0
Capital grants to private sector263.21.14.30.44.6
Capital grants to public sector276.3-3.23.1-3.10.0
Apportionment of Reserve28 
Total capital expenditure2911.0-0.810.2-1.48.8
Financial deficit3030.00.430.4-1.029.4
Financial transactions
Net lending to private sector and abroad310.4-0.20.30.00.3
Cash expenditure on company securities (including privatisation proceeds)32-4.50.0-4.50.0-4.5
Transactions concerning certain public sector pension schemes)331.10.01.10.01.1
Accruals adjustments on receipts341.5-0.11.40.01.4
Other accruals adjustments350.20.00.2-1.1-1.0
Miscellaneous financial transactions36-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.3
Borrowing requirement3728.6(4)0.028.6(4)-2.226.4

(1) Current deficit (line 21) = current expenditure (line 20) - current receipts (line 11).

Financial deficit (line 30) = current deficit (line 21) - capital receipts (line 22) + capital expenditure (line 29).

(2) On an accruals basis.

(3) Excluding local authorities' payments to central government and public corporations' payments to general government, which are in line 9.

(4) Own account borrowing.






Table 4A.6 Public sector transactions by sub-sector and economic category - continued
 £ billion 
 1997-98 
 Central government   
Line(1)Central
government
Local
authorities

Total
Public
corporation
Public
sector
 
 Current receipts(2)
1102.00.0102.0-0.2101.8Taxes on income and royalties
2119.20.2119.40.0119.4Taxes on expenditure
33.80.03.80.03.8Taxes on capital
449.20.049.20.049.2Social Security contributions
50.010.610.60.010.6Council tax
6-0.10.80.74.95.6Gross trading surplus
72.64.06.60.57.1Rent and miscellaneous current transfers
82.20.62.80.23.0Interest and dividends from private sector and abroad
96.3-3.92.3-2.30.0Interest and dividends within public sector
101.42.13.50.03.5Imputed charge for non-trading capital consumption
11286.614.3300.93.0304.0Total current receipts
 Current expenditure(2)
12101.855.0156.80.0156.8Current expenditure on goods and services
132.44.97.44.011.3Depreciation
147.60.78.30.08.3Subsidies
1590.613.0103.70.0103.7Current grants to personal sector
165.90.05.90.05.9Current grants abroad
1758.1-58.10.00.00.0Current grants within public sector
1829.30.4(3)29.8-0.329.5Debt interest
192.20.02.20.02.2Apportionment of Reserve
20298.016.0314.03.7317.7Total current expenditure
2111.41.713.10.613.8Current deficit
220.00.30.3-0.10.2Capital transfers
 Capital expenditure(2)
233.15.48.64.813.4Gross domestic fixed capital expenditure
24-2.4-4.9-7.4-4.0-11.3Less Depreciation
25-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.1Increase in stocks
263.31.14.40.44.7Capital grants to private sector
275.0-3.21.8-1.80.0Capital grants to public sector
280.20.00.20.00.2Apportionment of Reserve
299.1-1.67.5-0.67.0Total capital expenditure
3020.5-0.220.30.220.5Financial deficit
 Financial transactions
31-0.9-0.1-1.00.0-1.0Net lending to private sector and abroad
32-2.00.0-2.00.0-2.0Cash expenditure on company securities (including privatisation proceeds)
330.70.00.70.00.7Transactions concerning certain public sector pension schemes)
342.90.02.90.02.9Accruals adjustments on receipts
35-1.60.0-1.60.0-1.6Other accruals adjustments
360.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2Miscellaneous financial transactions
3719.5(4)-0.319.2(4)0.019.2Borrowing requirement

(1) Current deficit (line 21) = current expenditure (line 20) - current receipts (line 11).

Financial deficit (line 30) = current deficit (line 21) - capital receipts (line 22) + capital expenditure (line 29).

(2) On an accruals basis.

(3) Excluding local authorities' payments to central government and public corporations' payments to general government, which are in line 9.

(4) Own account borrowing.

Changes to forecasts

4A.10 Table 4A.7 provides details of changes to the public finances forecast for 1996-97 and 1997-98 since the last Budget and since the Summer Economic Forecast. Tax by tax details of the effects of the Budget measures are set out in Table 6.1, and the breakdown of the Control Total changes by Department is shown in Table 5.7.

Table 4A.7 Comparison with previous forecasts(1)
 £ million
 Changes since last
Budget
Changes since Summer
Economic Forecast
 1996-971997-981996-971997-98
Expenditure 
Control Total+0.5-1.7+0.5-1.7
Other general government expenditure(2)+0.2+0.7-0.1-0.8
Public corporations' market and overseas borrowing-0.2+0.2-0.4-0.1
Privatisation proceeds(3)-0.5+0.50.00.0
Total expenditure+0.0-0.3+0.0-2.7
Receipts 
Inland Revenue-1.8-5.6+0.1-0.6
Customs and Excise-0.9+1.4+0.2+2.1
Social security contributions-0.2+0.40.0+0.3
Other receipts-1.1-0.4+0.1-0.5
Total receipts-4.0-4.2+0.5+1.2
PSBR+4.0+3.9-0.5-3.9

(1) Previous forecasts have been adjusted for classification changes.

(2) Excluding privatisation proceeds.

(3) A minus sign indicates higher privatisation proceeds.

Historical series for the PSBR and its main components

4A.10 Table 4A.8 sets out historical series for the PSBR and its main components, including GGE(X), as shown in Chart 4.4. Table 4A.9 shows further details for government receipts, including the historical series for total taxes and social security contributions shown in Chart 4.3.

Table 4A.8 Historical series for the PSBR and its components
 Per cent of money GDP
 GGE(X)Other GGEGGEGeneral
government
receipts
Public
corporations'
market and
overseas
borrowing
PSBR
1965-6636 1/2 1 1/2 36 3/4 35 1/4 02 3/4
1966-67381 1/236 1/236 1/4 03
1967-6841 1/2 1 1/2 4338- 1/4 5
1968-69401 3/4 41 1/2 40 3/4 0 3/4
1969-7039 1/4 1 3/4 4141 3/4 - 1/2 -1 1/4
1970-7139 1/2 1 3/4 41 1/2 40 1/4 1/2 1 1/2
1971-72401 3/4 41 3/4 39 3/4 - 1/4 1 3/4
1972-7339 3/4 1 3/4 41 1/2 3803 3/4
1973-7441 1/2 243 1/2 38 1/2 16
1974-7546 3/4 248 3/4 40 1/2 3/4 9
1975-7647 1/4 249 1/4 40 1/4 1/4 9 1/2
1976-7744 3/4 246 3/4 41 3/4 6 1/2
1977-7841 1/2 1 1/2 4339 3/4 1/4 3 1/2
1978-7942 1/4 1 3/4 4438 3/4 1/4 5 1/2
1979-8042 1/2 1 1/2 4438 3/4 - 1/4 4 3/4
1980-8144 3/4 1 3/4 46 1/2 40 3/4 - 1/2 5 1/4
1981-8245 1/2 1 3/4 4743 3/4 03 1/4
1982-8345 1/2 1 3/4 47 1/4 43 3/4 - 1/2 3 1/4
1983-8444 3/4 1 1/4 46 1/4 42 3/4 03 1/4
1984-8545 1/4 146 1/4 43 1/2 1/4 3
1985-8643 1/4 144 1/4 42 1/4 - 1/4 1 1/2
1986-8742 1/4 1/4 42 3/4 40 1/2 - 1/4 1
1987-8840 1/2 1/4 40 3/4 41- 1/4 - 3/4
1988-8938- 1/4 37 3/4 40 1/4 - 1/2 -3
1989-9038 1/4 1/2 38 3/4 40- 1/4 -1 1/2
1990-9139 1/4 39 1/4 39 1/4 00
1991-9241- 1/2 40 1/2 38 1/4 02 1/4
1992-9343 1/2 - 1/2 4336 3/4 - 1/4 6
1993-9443 1/4 043 1/4 36- 1/4 7
1994-9542 1/2 - 1/4 42 1/2 36 3/4 - 1/4 5 1/4
1995-9642 1/4 1/2 42 3/4 38- 1/4 4 1/2
1996-9741 1/4 1/4 41 1/4 37 3/4 - 1/4 3 1/2
1997-9840 1/2 40 1/2 3802 1/2
1998-9939 1/2 39 1/2 3801 1/2
1999-0038 1/4 3/4 3938 1/2 0 1/2
2000-0137 1/2 3/4 38 1/4 390- 3/4
2001-0236 3/4 3/4 37 1/2 39 1/4 0-2

Table 4A.9 Historical series for government receipts
 Per cent of money GDP
Total taxes
and NICs
Other
receipts
General
government
receipts
Non-
North Sea
taxes and
NICs(1)
Public
Sector
current
receipts
1965-6631 3/4 3 1/2 35 1/4 31 3/4 37 1/2
1966-6732 1/2 3 3/4 36 1/4 32 1/2 38 1/4
1967-68344383439 3/4
1968-6935 3/4 540 3/4 35 3/4 42
1969-7037 1/2 4 1/4 41 3/4 37 1/2 43 3/4
1970-71373 1/4 40 1/4 3742 3/4
1971-7235 1/4 4 1/2 39 3/4 35 1/4 41
1972-73335383338 3/4
1973-7433 3/4 4 3/4 38 1/2 33 3/4 40
1974-7536 1/4 4 1/4 40 1/2 36 1/4 43
1975-7636 3/4 3 1/2 40 1/4 36 3/4 43 1/4
1976-7736 1/4 4 3/4 4136 1/2 43 3/4
1977-7835 1/4 4 1/2 39 3/4 35 1/2 42
1978-7934 1/4 4 1/2 38 3/4 34 3/4 41
1979-8035 1/2 3 1/4 38 3/4 35 1/2 41 3/4
1980-8136 3/4 440 3/4 36 1/2 43
1981-8239 3/4 3 3/4 43 3/4 39 1/4 46 1/2
1982-8339 1/2 4 1/4 43 3/4 38 1/2 46
1983-84393 3/4 42 3/4 38 1/4 45
1984-8539 3/4 3 3/4 43 1/2 38 1/4 44 1/2
1985-8638 3/4 3 1/2 42 1/4 37 1/4 44
1986-8738 1/4 3 1/4 41 1/2 37 3/4 42 3/4
1987-8838 1/4 2 3/4 413842 1/2
1988-8937 1/2 2 3/4 40 1/4 37 1/4 41 1/2
1989-90373403740 3/4
1990-91372 1/4 39 1/4 3739 3/4
1991-9236 1/4 238 1/4 36 1/2 39
1992-9334 1/4 2 1/2 36 3/4 34 1/2 37 1/4
1993-9433 3/4 2 1/4 363436 1/4
1994-95351 1/2 36 3/4 35 1/4 37 1/2
1995-9635 3/4 2 1/4 383638 1/2
1996-9735 3/4 1 3/4 37 3/4 3638 1/2
1997-9836 1/4 1 3/4 3836 1/4 38 1/2
1998-9936 1/2 1 3/4 3836 1/2 38 3/4
1999-00371 1/2 38 1/2 37 1/4 39
2000-0137 1/2 1 1/2 3937 3/4 39 1/2
2001-02381 1/4 39 1/4 3840

(1) As a percent of non-North Sea GDP.


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[Prepared November 1996]